OPERATION MANAGEMENT

ASSIGNMENT – 1 Forecasting

Note: Use MS Excel and submit one file with 7 tabs, one for each of the following questions.

The monthly sales of the year 2019 for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:

Month	2019 Sales
January	20
February	21
March	15
April	14
May	13
June	16
July	17
August	18
September	20
October	20
November	21
December	23

1. Plot the monthly sales.

2. Forecast January 2020 sales using the Naive method

3. Forecast January 2020 sales using a 3-month moving average.

4. Forecast January 2020 sales using a 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.

5. Forecast January 2020 sales using exponential smoothening where α = .3 and a September forecast of 18.

Bonus Questions

6. A trend projection using a regression equation Y = a + bX where is X is the month number. (example: for June, X = 6)

7. With the data given, which method would minimize the error in forecast?