OPERATION MANAGEMENT ASSIGNMENT – 1 Forecasting need to be done with Excel urgent

OPERATION MANAGEMENT

ASSIGNMENT – 1 Forecasting

Note: Use MS Excel and submit one file with 7 tabs, one for each of the following questions.

The monthly sales of the year 2019 for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:

Month 2019 Sales
January 20
February 21
March 15
April 14
May 13
June 16
July 17
August 18
September 20
October 20
November 21
December 23

1. Plot the monthly sales.

2. Forecast January 2020 sales using the Naive method

3. Forecast January 2020 sales using a 3-month moving average.

4. Forecast January 2020 sales using a 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.

5. Forecast January 2020 sales using exponential smoothening where α = .3 and a September forecast of 18.

Bonus Questions

6. A trend projection using a regression equation Y = a + bX where is X is the month number. (example: for June, X = 6)

7. With the data given, which method would minimize the error in forecast?

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