## OPERATION MANAGEMENT ASSIGNMENT – 1 Forecasting need to be done with Excel urgent

OPERATION MANAGEMENT

ASSIGNMENT – 1 Forecasting

Note: Use MS Excel and submit one file with 7 tabs, one for each of the following questions.

The monthly sales of the year 2019 for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:

 Month 2019 Sales January 20 February 21 March 15 April 14 May 13 June 16 July 17 August 18 September 20 October 20 November 21 December 23

1. Plot the monthly sales.

2. Forecast January 2020 sales using the Naive method

3. Forecast January 2020 sales using a 3-month moving average.

4. Forecast January 2020 sales using a 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.

5. Forecast January 2020 sales using exponential smoothening where α = .3 and a September forecast of 18.

Bonus Questions

6. A trend projection using a regression equation Y = a + bX where is X is the month number. (example: for June, X = 6)

7. With the data given, which method would minimize the error in forecast?

### Prepare a 2-3 page max narrative discussing the content and your thoughts regarding the importance (or lack of importance) of developing such a strategy.

Exit Strategies It’s difficult to believe that after going through everything it takes to get a small business up and off the ground, often times the next steps are to….

### What affirmative defenses (e.g., duress, fraud, public policy) will you present?

Leonard v. Pepsico: Cold Hard Facts   Inspired by the commercial shown in this assignment’s video, Leonard set out to obtain a Harrier Jet. Leonard explains that he is “typical….

### Discuss any aspects of the course you enjoyed or would like to see improved to provide a better learning

Supply Chain 1 – Describe and discuss three (3) concepts that you have learned in this course.  Define the concept and discuss how you demonstrated/learned the concept in course activities…..